P values, confidence intervals, or confidence levels for hypotheses?

Details P values, confidence intervals, or confidence levels for hypotheses? P values, confidence intervals, or confidence levels for hypotheses?

2009-12-19

arxiv.org/abs/0912.3878v3

Statistics

Methodology

The essential argument is unchanged from the previous versions, but the paper has been largely rewritten, the argument extende

Scientific paper

Null hypothesis significance tests and p values are widely used despite very strong arguments against their use in many contexts. Confidence intervals are often recommended as an alternative, but these do not achieve the objective of assessing the credibility of a hypothesis, and the distinction between confidence and probability is an unnecessary confusion. This paper proposes a more straightforward (probabilistic) definition of confidence, and suggests how the idea can be applied to whatever hypotheses are of interest to researchers. The relative merits of the three approaches are discussed using a series of illustrative examples: usually confidence based approaches seem more useful, but there are some contexts in which p values are appropriate. Key words: Confidence interval, Confidence level, Hypothesis testing, Null hypothesis significance tests, P value, Public understanding of statistics.

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