Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Jan 2012
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2012aas...21933405h&link_type=abstract
American Astronomical Society, AAS Meeting #219, #334.05
Mathematics
Probability
Scientific paper
Asteroid or comet collisions with Earth represent a low-probability but potentially very high-consequence threat. Effects of such collisions range from localized disasters to massive global devastation. One of the principal difficulties in assessing impact hazards from near-Earth objects (NEOs) is the diversity of the threat. Potentially hazardous objects (PHOs) range from 30-meter diameter asteroids, to 5-kilometer comets, including a range of compositions, shapes, densities, and a variety of types of orbits. As an initial step, we are developing scenarios that span a range of threat compositions, sizes, dynamics and times to impact. We intend to investigate these various scenarios in order to optimize deflection options and examine potential breakup of PHOs. We propose these scenarios as an initial starting point for consideration, and solicit feedback and comments from experts in the field.
This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. LLNL-ABS-503211.
Antoun Tarabay
Dearborn David
Elliott Jacquelyn
Gibbard Seran
Herbold E.
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