Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Dec 2006
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006aas...20921008b&link_type=abstract
2007 AAS/AAPT Joint Meeting, American Astronomical Society Meeting 209, #210.08; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society,
Mathematics
Probability
2
Scientific paper
The Kepler field was chosen by maximizing the numbers of stars, satisfying constraints on the ecliptic latitude, and ensuring sufficient ground-based resources for follow-up. The question is revisited in an effort to optimize the probability of detecting Earth-size planets in the habitable zone of late-type stars. The number density of stars as a function of galactic coordinates, apparent magnitude, spectral type, and luminosity class is simulated using the Besancon galactic model. Models generate synthetic star samples for specific coordinates and photometer constraints. From synthetic fields, we cull out the primary targets: stars bright and/or small enough to allow for detection of a 1 R⊕ planet within the habitable zone. We look to maximize the number of primary targets in the field. Using the number density of fainter background stars, we quantify the expected number of false-positives due to background eclipsing binaries. For each target, background stars are placed randomly in the photometric aperture. Half are selected as binaries using orbital period and eccentricity distributions as per Duquennoy and Mayor (1991). False positives are identified when a background binary injects a detectable photometric signal for which none of the following are observed: unequal secondary/primary eclipse depths, durations or epoch timings, or photocenter motion. Star counts (l=70) peak near b=+3 degrees and drop by 80% at b=+13. The number of primary targets, however, drops by only 10% in the same interval. The number of expected false positives drops dramatically with increasing galactic latitude. At b=+13, we expect no false positives mimicking habitable, Earth-size planets. A shift of 5-10 degrees in galactic latitude eliminates a significant source of false positives while preserving 90-95% of the primary targets. The Kepler field has, consequently, been moved to a higher galactic latitude centered at l=76.53, b=+13.29.
Support for this work came from NASA's Discovery Program.
Batalha Natalie M.
Borucki William
Caldwell Douglas A.
Chandrasekaran Hema
Gautier Thomas N.
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