On the subjective perception of the probability of an event

Details On the subjective perception of the probability of an event On the subjective perception of the probability of an event

2009-02-25

arxiv.org/abs/0902.4363v1

Mathematics

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7 pages, no figures. Text in Italian

Scientific paper

This note collects some reflections about an apparent incongruence between the classical third-person treatment of the probability of an event per unit time applied to an extended period in the future (e.g., the expected probability of a driver to meet with a car accident in the next N years) and the subjective perception of the same probability/risk that the involved person has, instant by instant during that period of time. Parallelisms with the classical Zeno's paradoxes are also made.

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