On the possible hazard on the major cities caused by asteroid impact in the Pacific Ocean

Details On the possible hazard on the major cities caused by asteroid impact in the Pacific Ocean On the possible hazard on the major cities caused by asteroid impact in the Pacific Ocean

Jan 1994

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1994em%26p...65....7y&link_type=abstract

Earth, Moon, and Planets (ISSN 0167-9295), vol. 65, no. 1, p. 7-13

Mathematics

Probability

5

Asteroids, Cities, Coasts, Disasters, Hazards, Meteorite Collisions, Pacific Ocean, Tsunami Waves, Buildings, Casualties, Economic Impact, Hawaii, Japan, Probability Theory, Taiwan

Scientific paper

Semi-quantitative investigation is made of hazard expected from an asteroidal impact in the Pacific. An impact of d (diameter) = 200 m asteroid has a probability of hitting somewhere in the Pacific once in 15000 y. By carrying out a Monte Carlo simulation, such an impact, on average, is shown to create a tsunami as high as 16, 14, 15, and 21 m at Japan, Taiwan, Shanghai and Hawaii, respectively. Wooden houses, stone and brick houses, and reinforced concrete buildings are likely to be demolished by tsunamis of height 2, 7 and 20 m respectively. Thus, there is a probability of 1% or so that most of the artificial constructions on the coast lines of the Pacific be destroyed in the next century by an asteroidal impact.

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