On the nature of polar cap magnetic activity during undisturbed periods

Mathematics – Probability

Scientific paper

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Interplanetary Magnetic Fields, Magnetic Disturbances, Polar Caps, Polar Substorms, Annual Variations, Geomagnetism

Scientific paper

A close correlation was found to exist between the polar cap magnetic disturbances and the variations in the azimuthal and vertical components of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), indicating that coupling of the high-latitude geomagnetic field with the interplanetary field takes place. The southward component of the IMF generates both polar cap disturbances and geomagnetic substorms, so that disturbances near the pole may be regarded as a precursor of a substorm. A new index of the changeability of the geomagnetic field is proposed, and it is shown that the increase of this index predicts with about 70% probability substorm development in both winter and summer.

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