On the likelihood of a human interstellar civilization

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Scientific paper

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Interstellar Travel, Manned Space Flight, Space Exploration, Economic Factors, Politics, Social Factors

Scientific paper

The technology for the construction of manned spacecraft capable of sub-light interstellar travel is likely to come on-line before the end of this century. The question of whether or not such a spacecraft will be constructed becomes, therefore, not scientific but political. It is pointed out that current trends are running against the development of new technologies in general, and against government spending for anything other than short range projects with an immediate economic advantage in particular. Also contributing to the lack of motivation for more ambitious, i.e., interstellar, space endeavors are civil service inertia and governmental control of basic science, which has recently sought to limit research almost as much as it has sought to encourage it, e.g., DNA recombination, NASA cutbacks, a reliance upon modifications of old energy technology rather than the development of new energy sources, etc. Mitigating this trend, however, is a growing public interest in interstellar contact, mostly evidenced in popular books and movies, especially those dealing with UFO phenomena. Curiosity on the part of large numbers of people, including scientists and many government officials, to see 'what's out there', could lead to renewal of basic research aimed at interstellar travel.

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