On the improbability of intelligent extraterrestrials

Details On the improbability of intelligent extraterrestrials On the improbability of intelligent extraterrestrials

May 1982

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1982jbis...35..195b&link_type=abstract

British Interplanetary Society, Journal (Interstellar Studies), vol. 35, May 1982, p. 195-207.

Mathematics

Logic

Astronomical Models, Biochemistry, Biological Evolution, Chemical Evolution, Extraterrestrial Intelligence, Amino Acids, Biosphere, Genetics, Mitosis

Scientific paper

Discussions relating to the prevalence of extraterrestrial life generally remain ambiguous due to the lack of a suitable model for the development of biology. In this paper a simple model is proposed based on neutral evolution theory which leads to quantitative values for the genome growth rate within a biosphere. It is hypothesised that the genome size is a measure of organism complexity and hence an indicator of the likelihood of intelligence. The calculations suggest that organisms with the complexity of human beings may be rare and only occur with a probability below once per galaxy.

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