On the elicitation of continuous, symmetric, unimodal distributions

Details On the elicitation of continuous, symmetric, unimodal distributions On the elicitation of continuous, symmetric, unimodal distributions

2008-05-14

arxiv.org/abs/0805.2044v1

Statistics

Methodology

Submitted to the Electronic Journal of Statistics (http://www.i-journals.org/ejs/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics

Scientific paper

In this brief note, we highlight some difficulties that can arise when fitting a continuous, symmetric, unimodal distribution to a set of expert's judgements. A simple analysis shows it is possible to fit a Cauchy distribution to an expert's beliefs when their beliefs actually follow a normal distribution. This example stresses the need for careful distribution fitting and for feedback to the expert about what the fitted distribution implies about their beliefs.

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