Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
2011-03-08
Mathematics
Probability
24 pages, 3 figures
Scientific paper
The drawdown process $Y=\bar{X} - X$ of a completely asymmetric L\'{e}vy process $X$ is given by $X$ reflected at its running supremum $\bar{X}$.In this paper we explicitly express the law of the sextuple $(\tau_a,\bar{G}_{\tau_a},\underline{X}_{\tau_a},\bar{X}_{\tau_a},Y_{\tau_a-},Y_{\tau_a}-a)$ in terms of the scale function and the L\'evy measure of $X$, where $\tau_a$ denotes the first-passage time of $Y$ over the level $a>0$, $\bar{G}_{\tau_a}$ is the time of the last supremum of $X$ prior to $\tau_a$ and $\underline{X}$ is the running infimum of $X$. We also explicitly identify the distribution of the drawup $\hat{Y}_{\tau_a}$ at the moment $\tau_a$, where $\hat{Y} = X-\underline{X}$, and derive the probability of a large drawdown preceding a small rally. These results are applied to the Carr & Wu \cite{CarrWu} model for S&P 500.
Mijatović Aleksandar
Pistorius Martijn R.
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