Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astrophysics – Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics
Scientific paper
2011-02-04
Astronomy and Astrophysics
Astrophysics
Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics
9 pages, 4 figures; accepted to MNRAS
Scientific paper
Nested sampling has emerged as a valuable tool for Bayesian analysis, in particular for determining the Bayesian evidence. The method is based on a specific type of random sampling of the likelihood function and prior volume of the parameter space. I study the statistical uncertainty in the evidence computed with nested sampling. I examine the uncertainty estimator from Skilling (2004, 2006) and introduce a new estimator based on a detailed analysis of the statistical properties of nested sampling. Both perform well in test cases and make it possible to obtain the statistical uncertainty in the evidence with no additional computational cost.
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