Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astrophysics
Scientific paper
Dec 2011
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011agufmsh21b1928k&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2011, abstract #SH21B-1928
Astronomy and Astrophysics
Astrophysics
[7519] Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy / Flares, [7536] Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy / Solar Activity Cycle
Scientific paper
The anomalous character of solar cycle 23 has been pointed out. It is proposed that the solar dynamo is undergoing a transition from a state of "grand maximum" to one of "regular oscillations". In this study, we analyze the time distribution of the number and energy of solar flares, and the duration of intervals between them, from cycle 21 to 23. We consider 32355 flares of class C2 and larger (C2+) from the GOES catalogue. Daily values of X-ray flux (wavelengths 1-8Å) have been computed by summing the energy proxies of the events. The series of daily numbers of C2+ solar flares are strongly correlated to their daily energy flux. The long duration of cycle 23 (~13 years), the long interval with no C2+ flare between the end of cycle 23 and the start of cycle 24 (466 days) are remarkable compared to the two earlier cycles. Amplitudes of extreme flares increase when mean flux decreases. We have calculated running averages of energy flux over intervals going from 7 to 365 days: the singular shape of cycle 23 is increasingly striking with increasing interval: the first ~70% of the cycle display (in logarithmic scale) linearly rising maxima, whereas minima are aligned along a descending slope for the latter part of the cycle. Energy flux oscillates between these and takes the shape of a bifurcation, starting near 2002. Durations of inter-event intervals between successive C2+ flares undergo quasi-periodic (~11yr) oscillations between two distinct states, which we call "active" and "quiet", with sharp onset and termination. The ratio of time spent in the active vs quiet states ranges from 1.8 to 1.4 for cycles 21 to 23, cycle 23 having the longest quiet period. It has been proposed that anomalous cycle 23 resembles cycle 4, which was followed by reduced cycles 5 and 6 at the time of the Dalton-minimum in solar activity, often associated with a cooler global climate. It will be interesting to monitor the evolution of solar flares in cycle 24, in order to further our understanding of solar activity during a sequence of possibly weak and decreasing cycles.
Courtillot Vincent
Kossobokov Vladimir G.
Le Mouel J.
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