On improvement to the Shock Propagation Model (SPM) applied to interplanetary shock transit time forecasting

Details On improvement to the Shock Propagation Model (SPM) applied to interplanetary shock transit time forecasting On improvement to the Shock Propagation Model (SPM) applied to interplanetary shock transit time forecasting

Sep 2008

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008jgra..11309101l&link_type=abstract

Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 113, Issue A9, CiteID A09101

Statistics

Computation

1

Computational Geophysics: Model Verification And Validation, Interplanetary Physics: Interplanetary Shocks, Mathematical Geophysics: Numerical Approximations And Analysis (4260), Mathematical Geophysics: Prediction (3245, 4263), Space Weather: Models

Scientific paper

This paper investigates methods to improve the predictions of Shock Arrival Time (SAT) of the original Shock Propagation Model (SPM). According to the classical blast wave theory adopted in the SPM, the shock propagating speed is determined by the total energy of the original explosion together with the background solar wind speed. Noting that there exists an intrinsic limit to the transit times computed by the SPM predictions for a specified ambient solar wind, we present a statistical analysis on the forecasting capability of the SPM using this intrinsic property. Two facts about SPM are found: (1) the error in shock energy estimation is not the only cause of the prediction errors and we should not expect that the accuracy of SPM to be improved drastically by an exact shock energy input; and (2) there are systematic differences in prediction results both for the strong shocks propagating into a slow ambient solar wind and for the weak shocks into a fast medium. Statistical analyses indicate the physical details of shock propagation and thus clearly point out directions of the future improvement of the SPM. A simple modification is presented here, which shows that there is room for improvement of SPM and thus that the original SPM is worthy of further development.

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