Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Jul 2007
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2007dda....38.1002l&link_type=abstract
American Astronomical Society, DDA meeting #38, #10.02
Mathematics
Probability
Scientific paper
The recent discovery of a collisional family in the Kuiper belt by Mike Brown and associates is surprising because it is a highly improbable event in today's belt. Assuming Brown et al.'s estimate of the size of the progenitors, we find roughly a 1 in 10,000 chance of such an impact over the age of the Solar System. In addition, it is not possible for the collision to have occurred in a massive primordial Kuiper belt because the dynamical coherence of the family would not have survived whatever event molded the final Kuiper belt structure. Here we suggest that the so-called 2003 EL61 family is the result of a collision between two scattered disk objects. The scattered disk has an advantage over the Kuiper belt because it is currently dynamically eroding away and it was roughly a factor of 100 more populous at early times. We show that the probability that a collision occurred between two scattered disk objects similar in size to those advocated by Brown et al$.$ and that the resulting collisional family landed in the Kuiper belt is on the order of unity, although the number is uncertain. Thus, we conclude that the 2003 EL61 family progenitors most likely originated in the scattered disk. HFL is grateful for funding from NASA's PG&G and Origins program.
Bottke William
Levison Harold F.
Morbidelli Alessandro
Vokrouhlicky David
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