Okun's law revisited. Is there structural unemployment in developed countries?

Details Okun's law revisited. Is there structural unemployment in developed countries? Okun's law revisited. Is there structural unemployment in developed countries?

2011-07-10

arxiv.org/abs/1109.4383v1

Economy

Quantitative Finance

General Finance

11 pages, 8 figures

Scientific paper

Okun's law for the biggest developed countries is re-estimated using the most recent data on real GDP per capita and the rate of unemployment. Our results show that the change in unemployment rate can be predicted with a high accuracy. The link needs the introduction of a structural break which might be caused by the change in monetary policy or/and in measurement units. Statistically, the link between the studied variables is characterized by the coefficient of determination between 0.40 (Australia) and 0.84 (the USA). The residual errors can be associated with measurement errors. The obtained results suggest the absence of structural unemployment in the studied developed countries.

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