"Not only defended but also applied": The perceived absurdity of Bayesian inference

Details "Not only defended but also applied": The perceived absurdity of Bayesian inference "Not only defended but also applied": The perceived absurdity of Bayesian inference

2010-06-28

arxiv.org/abs/1006.5366v4

Mathematics

Statistics Theory

10 pages, resubmission to The American Statistician

Scientific paper

The missionary zeal of many Bayesians of old has been matched, in the other direction, by a view among some theoreticians that Bayesian methods are absurd-not merely misguided but obviously wrong in principle. We consider several examples, beginning with Feller's classic text on probability theory and continuing with more recent cases such as the perceived Bayesian nature of the so-called doomsday argument. We analyze in this note the intellectual background behind various misconceptions about Bayesian statistics, without aiming at a complete historical coverage of the reasons for this dismissal.

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