Non-linear modelling of monthly mean vorticity time changes: an application to the western Mediterranean

Details Non-linear modelling of monthly mean vorticity time changes: an application to the western Mediterranean Non-linear modelling of monthly mean vorticity time changes: an application to the western Mediterranean

Jan 1998

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1998angeo..16..116f&link_type=abstract

Annales Geophysicae, vol. 16, Issue 1, pp.116-124

Mathematics

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Scientific paper

Starting from a number of observables in the form of time-series of meteorological elements in various areas of the northern hemisphere, a model capable of fitting past records and predicting monthly vorticity time changes in the western Mediterranean is implemented. A new powerful statistical methodology is introduced (MARS) in order to capture the non-linear dynamics of time-series representing the available 40-year history of the hemispheric circulation. The developed model is tested on a suitable independent data set. An ensemble forecast exercise is also carried out to check model stability in reference to the uncertainty of input quantities.

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