Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Jan 2009
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009aas...21340402n&link_type=abstract
American Astronomical Society, AAS Meeting #213, #404.02; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 41, p.195
Mathematics
Probability
Scientific paper
The New Worlds Observer (NWO) is a 2-spacecraft constellation (telescope & starshade) orbiting the 2nd Earth-Sun Lagrange point. NWO searches stars for solar systems containing Earth-like planets by blocking the starlight with the starshade and then using the telescope to take direct observations of the star's habitable zone.
The NWO Mission Planner finds a near optimal path through the stars of interest, maximizing the likelihood of detecting any existing Earth-like planets while minimizing spacecraft resource costs. The likelihood of detecting an Earth-like planet is a function of the size of the star's continuously habitable zone and the probability that the star has an Earth-like planet (ηEarth). The mission planner considers minimizing the fuel required to move the starshade from star to star, the fuel required to maintain the required starlight suppression during an observation, and the total mission time required to obtain a completeness ≥ 30.
Traditional optimization schemes that randomly vary an existing star path to find new paths fail because they do not account for system constraints. Thus, to find a near-optimal path, the mission planner chooses the lowest cost path from many pseudo-random star paths generated by prioritizing greater habitable zone coverage, smaller star to star motion, lower station keeping costs, and shorter wait times between observations. The mission planner considers sun constraints and force variation during path generation.
At each star, the mission planner randomly determines if an Earth-like planet exists and was detected. If NWO detects a planet, the starshade will suppress the starlight while the planet is observed and characterized. The mission planner is used to generate 1,000,000 star paths that are scored to find the near-optimal path. Preliminary results show that a star path meeting mission completeness and discovery requirements can be achieved in 70% of the available mission life.
Barber G.
Newhart Lance
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