New interplanetary proton fluence model

Details New interplanetary proton fluence model New interplanetary proton fluence model

Aug 1990

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1990jspro..27..403f&link_type=abstract

Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets (ISSN 0022-4650), vol. 27, July-Aug. 1990, p. 403-410.

Mathematics

Probability

22

Astronomical Models, Interplanetary Medium, Proton Energy, Proton Impact, Proton Damage, Solar Cycles, Solar Radiation, Space Missions, Statistical Analysis

Scientific paper

A new predictive engineering model for the interplanetary fluence of protons with above 10 MeV and above 30 MeV is described. The data set used is a combination of observations made from the earth's surface and from above the atmosphere between 1956 and 1963 and observations made from spacecraft in the vicinity of earth between 1963 and 1985. The data cover a time period three times as long as the period used in earlier models. With the use of this data set the distinction between 'ordinary proton events' and 'anomalously large events' made in earlier work disappears. This permitted the use of statistical analysis methods developed for 'ordinary events' on the entire data set. The greater than 10 MeV fluences at 1 AU calculated with the new model are about twice those expected on the basis of models now in use. At energies above 30 MeV, the old and new models agree. In contrast to earlier models, the results do not depend critically on the fluence from any one event and are independent of sunspot number. Mission probability curves derived from the fluence distribution are presented.

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