New Criteria for Geoeffective CMEs

Details New Criteria for Geoeffective CMEs New Criteria for Geoeffective CMEs

Jun 2006

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006spd....37.0814k&link_type=abstract

American Astronomical Society, SPD meeting #37, #8.14; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 38, p.232

Mathematics

Probability

Scientific paper

For a purpose of space weather forecast, we searched for the criteria for selecting geoeffective CMEs (Dst <-50nT). Since the front side halo CMEs are generally considered as strong candidates for geomagnetic storms, we selected, out of 7742 SOHO/LASCO CMEs from 1997 to 2003, 293 front side halo (including partial halo) CMEs, and examined how their geoeffectiveness depends on their speed, V, Source region location, L, and the earthward direction parameter. The direction parameter is defined as the ratio of distance between the shorter CME front and the solar center to that of the longer CME front. We first examined how the probability of geoeffective CMEs depends on the speed and location. It is found that the probability is larger than the mean ( 39%, 114/293) when the CME occurs at 0

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