New aspects of solar activity forecast

Details New aspects of solar activity forecast New aspects of solar activity forecast

Mar 2002

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002esasp.477..229k&link_type=abstract

In: Proceedings of the Second Solar Cycle and Space Weather Euroconference, 24 - 29 September 2001, Vico Equense, Italy. Editor:

Computer Science

1

Solar Activity: Forecast

Scientific paper

The features of the 11-year and long-term cycles of the solar activity (SA) were investigated by means of a new method of equal phase averaging. The base characteristics of the long-term SA cycle were obtained: the mean value of the period is about 100+/-5 years; its amplitude is about 20% of the 11-year cycle amplitude. It was revealed that the maximum of the long-term cycle has two peaks. The forecasts of the Wolf number values and that of the radio-flux at 10.7 cm for the solar cycles 23 and 24 were obtained by the new method. The results of the application of the new method of equal phase averaging were compared with the SA forecasts published by NASA.

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