Computer Science
Scientific paper
Mar 2002
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002esasp.477..517p&link_type=abstract
In: Proceedings of the Second Solar Cycle and Space Weather Euroconference, 24 - 29 September 2001, Vico Equense, Italy. Editor:
Computer Science
1
Solar Energetic Protons
Scientific paper
The high-energy particles that are emitted by the sun during Solar Proton Events (SPEs) pose a serious hazard to interplanetary and near-earth spacecraft causing damage to electronics, spurious signals and a general disruption of spacecraft operations. An analysis of GOES X-rays and full disk solar radio flux prior to proton events has revealed significant differences compared to times at which no proton events occurred. Selecting predictor variables using the F-statistic, neural network models have been generated which use data from tens of days prior to SPEs to predict their occurrence 48 hours in advance with a 65% success rate. This is an improvement in lead time of an order of magnitude over current SPE prediction models.
Clucas Simon
Gabriel Steve
Patrick Gareth
Rodgers David
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