Neural Network Prediction of solar cycle 24

Details Neural Network Prediction of solar cycle 24 Neural Network Prediction of solar cycle 24

2010-12-15

arxiv.org/abs/1012.3418v1

Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics 11(4), 2011: 491-496

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics

Accepted for publication RAA

Scientific paper

The ability to predict the future behavior of solar activity has become of extreme importance due to its effect on the near Earth environment. Predictions of both the amplitude and timing of the next solar cycle will assist in estimating the various consequences of Space Weather. The level of solar activity is usually expressed by international sunspot number ($R_z$). Several prediction techniques have been applied and have achieved varying degrees of success in the domain of solar activity prediction. In this paper, we predict a solar index ($R_z$) in solar cycle 24 by using the neural network method. The neural network technique is used to analyze the time series of solar activity. According to our predictions of yearly sunspot number, the maximum of cycle 24 will occur in the year 2013 and will have an annual mean sunspot number of 65. Finally, we discuss our results in order to compare it with other suggested predictions.

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