Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Jan 2006
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006aipc..813..230a&link_type=abstract
SPACE TECH.& APPLIC.INT.FORUM-STAIF 2006: 10th Conf Thermophys Applic Microgravity; 23rd Symp Space Nucl Pwr & Propulsion; 4th C
Mathematics
Probability
1
Power And Production Reactors, Protection Systems, Safety, Radiation Monitoring, Accidents, And Dismantling, Spaceborne And Space Research Instruments, Apparatus, And Components
Scientific paper
Some space missions require a nuclear-power source to generate electrical power to meet mission objectives. At present, the nuclear-power source is an assembly of modular heat sources called the general purpose heat source (GPHS) modules. Each module comprises graphite shells designed to protect iridium-alloy clads which serve as the primary containment shells for the radioactive, heat-producing material. In the course of launching the space vehicle to perform its mission the nuclear heat source may be exposed to severe accident environments. One particular environment is a primary impact event where individual GPHS modules impact hard surfaces at speeds in the range of 50 meters per second or more. Tests have shown that some clads may be breached in particularly severe impacts and release a small fraction of their contents. This paper presents an empirical model for predicting essential ingredients for assessing the risk associated with primary impact events. The ingredients include: clad failure probability, release fraction of clad contents, characterization of the released material in terms of particle-size distribution and a means to estimate uncertainty in the prediction process. The empirical model focuses on the deformation of the clads and their capability to withstand deformation without breaching, measured by ductility. The basic criterion used to estimate all ingredients is called ``negative margin''. The procedure for estimating risk factors entails calculation of clad distortion by, e.g. hydrocode simulation, and high-strain-rate ductility of the iridium alloy. Negative margin is a linear combination of distortion and ductility. Regression equations derived from test data are used to calculate the clad failure probability and the fractional activity release as functions of negative margin. The mass-based particle-size distribution is calculated as a function of release fraction. Cumulative uncertainty in this computing process is evaluated using sequential uncertainties in each step implicit in the regression analyses. The overall process is well suited to the Monte Carlo method of risk assessment. The outcome of each history in which clad failure is predicted is a mass fraction of particles in each group. The group-wise source terms are then used to estimate individual and population doses.
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