Near-parabolic cometary flux in the outer solar system. II

Mathematics – Probability

Scientific paper

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Comets, Extrasolar Planets, Oort Cloud, Solar System, Flux Density, Orbital Elements, Perihelions

Scientific paper

This paper presents estimates of the flux of comets with semimajor axes of about 20,000 AU in the outer planetary region that were made on the presumption that the major planets and the galactic tide control the comets' dynamics. The flux is found to be a rapidly increasing function of the perihelion distance. It is determined that, if the lifetime of short-period comets is typically 20,000 yr, it is possible to regard them as originating from the Oort cloud. If it is as short as 2000 yr, there is a discrepancy of a factor of 10 between the observed and the predicted supply rates. The effects of factors such as the discovery probability and magnitude difference between long-period and SP comets are discussed.

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