Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Apr 1994
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1994icar..108..298y&link_type=abstract
Icarus, vol. 108, no. 2, pt. 1, p. 298-308
Mathematics
Probability
9
Asteroids, Collisions, Data Bases, Gravitational Effects, Many Body Problem, Orbit Calculation, Orbit Perturbation, Probability Theory, Collision Rates, Estimating, Orbital Elements
Scientific paper
We calculated the orbital motion of 4506 numbered asteroids taking into account the effect of the gravitational attraction of asteroids as well as the perturbation of nine planets. The calculation was carried out for about 130 years into the future, and such close encounters that distance between two asteroids is less than 0.01 AU were monitored for this period. In addition, close encounters between asteroids and planets and between asteroids and hypothetical spacecraft were also analyzed. By this calculation, we obtained a near-miss database which contains about 13,000 data of close encounters. If we assume that the diameters of most asteroids calculated here are more than 20 km, the probability of collision between asteroids is estimated to be once per 108 years.
Nakamura Takashi
Yoshikawa Makoto
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