NARMAX Approach to the Magnetopsheric System.

Details NARMAX Approach to the Magnetopsheric System. NARMAX Approach to the Magnetopsheric System.

Dec 2005

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2005agufmsm33e..02b&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2005, abstract #SM33E-02

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Methodology

2722 Forecasting (7924, 7964), 2788 Magnetic Storms And Substorms (7954)

Scientific paper

To derive a mathematical description of the magnetospheric dynamics from first principles the models of all processes involved should be conjugated into a global model. This goal will eventually be accomplished. However the present level of understanding of the processes involved means that this will not happen in the foreseeable future. An alternative approach is to dynamics use system identification. In this paper recent results of NARMAX modelling (Nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average with eXogenous inputs). One of the most important features of NARMAX models is that model terms are physically interpretable. Single and multi input, discrete and continuous time models of the evolution of Dst, derived using NARMAX methodology, are presented and reviewed.

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