Other
Scientific paper
Dec 2008
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008agufmsm53a1673y&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2008, abstract #SM53A-1673
Other
1513 Geomagnetic Excursions, 2788 Magnetic Storms And Substorms (7954), 7904 Geomagnetically Induced Currents, 7924 Forecasting (2722), 7974 Solar Effects
Scientific paper
The multifractal properties and correlation of two indices of geomagnetic activity - Dst , representative of low latitudes and ap, representative of the global geomagnetic activity - with the solar X-ray brightness, Xl, during the period from 1 March 1995 to 17 June 2003 are examined using the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) techniques. The DFA results show that the Dst and ap time series are non-stationary and anti-persistent, while the Xl time series is stationary and persistent. The h(q) curves of Dst and ap in the MF- DFA are similar to each other, but they are different from that of Xl, indicating that the scaling properties of Xl are different from those of Dst and ap. Hence, one should not predict the magnitude of magnetic storms directly from solar X-ray observations. However, a strong relationship exists between the classes of the solar X-ray irradiance (the irradiance classes used separate solar flares of class X-M, class C, and class B or less, including no flares) in hourly measurements and the geomagnetic disturbances (large to moderate, small, or quiet) seen in Dst and ap during the active period. Each time series was converted into a symbolic sequence using 3 classes. The frequency, yielding the measure representations, of the substrings in the symbolic sequences then characterizes the pattern of space weather events. Using the MF-DFA method and traditional multifractal analysis, we calculate the h(q), D(q) and τ(q) curves of the measure representations. The τ(q) curves indicate that the measure representations of these three indices are multifractal. Based on this 3-class clustering, we find that the h(q), D(q) and τ(q) curves of the measure representations of Xl and Dst are similar to each other for positive values of q. This confirms a positive flare-storm class dependence reflected in the scaling exponents h(q) in the MF-DFA and the multifractal exponents D(q) and τ(q). This finding indicates that the solar flare classes can be used to improve the prediction of Dst.
Anh Vo Van
Eastes Richard
Yu Zhenbao
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