Mathematics – Logic
Scientific paper
Dec 2009
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009agufmnh13a1119b&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2009, abstract #NH13A-1119
Mathematics
Logic
[7223] Seismology / Earthquake Interaction, Forecasting, And Prediction
Scientific paper
Laboratory based Dilatancy-diffusion model predicts that crustal rocks when subjected to various degrees of stresses, simulating different phases of earthquake preparatory cycle, undergo opening of minor cracks, in-flux of fluids, material strengthening prior to the rupture. These changes producing small perturbation in physical properties of rocks are manifested in the enhanced micro-seismicity, seismic wave velocity changes, crustal deformation, small-scale changes in gravity, resistivity, magnetic field intensity, electromagnetic and radon gas emission as well as by fluctuations in hydrological parameters. Recognising that simultaneous measurements of inter-disciplinary parameters are key to decipher characteristic space-time variation during the earthquake preparatory cycles, a Multi-Parameteric Geophysical Observatory (MPGO) has been established at Ghuttu, Central Himalaya. Located in a narrow belt of high seismicity, just south of the Main Central Thrust of the Himalaya, has been the seat of recent 1991-Uttarkashi and 1999-Chamoli earthquakes, both M> 6. The MPGO became fully operational in April 2007 and is equipped with super conducting gravimeter, overhauser magnetometer, tri-axial fluxgate magnetometer, ULF band search coil magnetometer, radon data logger, water level recorders and is backed up by the dense network of Broad Band Seismometers (BBS) and GPS. However, the isolation of weak earthquake precursory signal further requires characterization of time variability related to environmental, hydrological, tectonic and even inter planetary processes affecting differently each geophysical time series. Demonstrating the potential of data adoptive techniques like Principal Component Analysis, Wavelet, Singular Spectrum Analysis, Fractal etc in denoising and allowing parameterization of tidal, pressure and hydrological influence on gravity and other time series, the presentation shall present nature of precursory signals in gravity, magnetic, radon and water level in association with a moderate 4.9 M Kharsali Earthquake of July 22, 2007, largest local earthquake recorded since the MPGO became functional.
Arora Baldev R.
Bansal B. K.
Kumar Nirman
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