Mathematics – Logic
Scientific paper
Jan 2005
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2005georl..3201707m&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 32, Issue 1, CiteID L01707
Mathematics
Logic
3
Global Change: Impacts Of Global Change (1225), Hydrology: Precipitation (3354), Atmospheric Processes: Global Climate Models (1626, 4928)
Scientific paper
Nineteen coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Program (CMIP) were used to analyze future rainfall conditions over East Africa under enhanced CO2 conditions. 80 year control runs of these models indicated that four models produced mean annual rainfall distributions closely resembling climatological means and all four models had normalized root mean square errors well within the bounds of observed variability. East African (10°N-20°S, 25°-50°E) rainfall data from transient 80 year experiments which featured CO2 increases of 1% per year were compared with 80 year control simulations. Results indicate enhanced annual and seasonal rainfall rates, and increased extreme wet period frequency. These results indicate that East Africa may face a future in which mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria and Rift Valley fever proliferate resulting from increased CO2.
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