Modes of multi-decadal oceanic precipitation variations from a reconstruction and AR4 model output for the 20th century

Details Modes of multi-decadal oceanic precipitation variations from a reconstruction and AR4 model output for the 20th century Modes of multi-decadal oceanic precipitation variations from a reconstruction and AR4 model output for the 20th century

Jul 2009

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009georl..3614708s&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 36, Issue 14, CiteID L14708

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4

Global Change: Climate Variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513), Global Change: Oceans (1616, 3305, 4215, 4513), Hydrology: Precipitation (3354)

Scientific paper

Monthly oceanic precipitation variations are available from satellite observations beginning 1979 and from models for earlier periods, and both the observations and models indicate increasing global-average precipitation with warming global temperatures. Recently the authors developed an indirect data-based reconstruction of precipitation beginning 1900, which is used here to analyze near-global average multi-decadal oceanic variations through the 20th century. We compare this new reconstruction to oceanic coupled-model precipitation from AR4 models beginning 1900, and to GPCP precipitation beginning 1979. Both the reconstruction and AR4 models indicate increasing precipitation over the 20th century. The reconstruction increase is stronger than the AR4 increase largely due to a climate shift in the 1970s that is resolved by the reconstruction but absent in the AR4 ensemble. The reconstruction climate shift has an ENSO-like spatial pattern and in the reconstruction the shift is associated with an ENSO mode, consistent with work done by others. The influence of this mode indicates the need for coupled models to accurately simulate the tropical Pacific in order to resolve that region's influence on multi-decadal variations.

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