Modelling recorded crime: a full search for cointegrated models

Details Modelling recorded crime: a full search for cointegrated models Modelling recorded crime: a full search for cointegrated models

2008-04-29

arxiv.org/abs/0804.4560v2

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6 pages including 1 figure and 4 tables; typos corrected, footnotes changed

Scientific paper

A modelgenerator is developed that searches for cointegrated models among a potentially large group of candidate models. The generator employs the first step of the Engle-Granger procedure and orders cointegrated models according to the information criterions AIC and BIC. Assisted by the generator, a cointegrated relation is established between recorded violent crime in the Netherlands, the number of males aged 15-25 years (split into Western and non-Western background) and deflated consumption. In-sample forecasts reveal that the cointegrated model outperforms the best short-run models.

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