Modeling the Worldwide Spread of Pandemic Influenza: Baseline Case and Containment Interventions

Details Modeling the Worldwide Spread of Pandemic Influenza: Baseline Case and Containment Interventions Modeling the Worldwide Spread of Pandemic Influenza: Baseline Case and Containment Interventions

2007-01-24

arxiv.org/abs/q-bio/0701038v1

PLoS Med 4(1): e13. (2007)

Biology

Quantitative Biology

Other Quantitative Biology

16 pages

Scientific paper

10.1371/journal.pmed.0040013

We present a study of the worldwide spread of a pandemic influenza and its possible containment at a global level taking into account all available information on air travel. We studied a metapopulation stochastic epidemic model on a global scale that considers airline travel flow data among urban areas. We provided a temporal and spatial evolution of the pandemic with a sensitivity analysis of different levels of infectiousness of the virus and initial outbreak conditions (both geographical and seasonal). For each spreading scenario we provided the timeline and the geographical impact of the pandemic in 3,100 urban areas, located in 220 different countries. We compared the baseline cases with different containment strategies, including travel restrictions and the therapeutic use of antiviral (AV) drugs. We show that the inclusion of air transportation is crucial in the assessment of the occurrence probability of global outbreaks. The large-scale therapeutic usage of AV drugs in all hit countries would be able to mitigate a pandemic effect with a reproductive rate as high as 1.9 during the first year; with AV supply use sufficient to treat approximately 2% to 6% of the population, in conjunction with efficient case detection and timely drug distribution. For highly contagious viruses (i.e., a reproductive rate as high as 2.3), even the unrealistic use of supplies corresponding to the treatment of approximately 20% of the population leaves 30%-50% of the population infected. In the case of limited AV supplies and pandemics with a reproductive rate as high as 1.9, we demonstrate that the more cooperative the strategy, the more effective are the containment results in all regions of the world, including those countries that made part of their resources available for global use.

Affiliated with

Also associated with

No associations

Rating

Modeling the Worldwide Spread of Pandemic Influenza: Baseline Case and Containment Interventions does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.

If you have personal experience with Modeling the Worldwide Spread of Pandemic Influenza: Baseline Case and Containment Interventions, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Modeling the Worldwide Spread of Pandemic Influenza: Baseline Case and Containment Interventions will most certainly appreciate the feedback.

Rate now

Comments { 0 }

Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-604232