Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astrophysics
Scientific paper
Jul 2010
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010cha%26a..34..305l&link_type=abstract
Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics, Volume 34, Issue 3, p. 305-315.
Astronomy and Astrophysics
Astrophysics
Scientific paper
Adopting the autoregressive method for time-series modeling, we have made a study on the medium-term forecast of solar 10.7 cm radio flux (F10.7). The result of forecast experiments and the error analysis indicate that when the solar activity is at a rather low level and the 27-day periodicity of F10.7 is apparent, the autoregressive forecast method has a high accuracy and relatively ideal effectiveness, but when a large active region appears or disappears on the solar dusk, the forecast effectiveness is not ideal. This means that the autoregressive method for the time-series modeling can reflect well the 27-day periodicity of F10.7, and that it has certain applicability for building a mediumterm forecast model of F10.7. By comparing the forecast results in the period from 21th September 2005 to 7th June 2007, it is demonstrated that the accuracy of the autoregressive forecast method is equivalent to that of the forecast made by the American Air Force.
Dou Xian-Kang
Liu Si-Qing
Wen Jing
Zhong Qiu-Zhen
No associations
LandOfFree
Modeling Research of the 27-day Forecast of 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux (I) does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.
If you have personal experience with Modeling Research of the 27-day Forecast of 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux (I), we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Modeling Research of the 27-day Forecast of 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux (I) will most certainly appreciate the feedback.
Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-956004