Modeling of Solar Activity Linear Time Series and the Prediction of Maximum Cycle 23

Details Modeling of Solar Activity Linear Time Series and the Prediction of Maximum Cycle 23 Modeling of Solar Activity Linear Time Series and the Prediction of Maximum Cycle 23

Mar 2001

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2001lapa....3....1m&link_type=abstract

Warta LAPAN, vol. 3, p. 1

Mathematics

Solar Activity, Time Series Analysis, Mathematical Models, Predictions, Solar Cycles, Neural Nets, Regression Analysis

Scientific paper

Modeling of solar activity have been made using linear autoregression (AR) of time series data of yearly sunspot number. Based of Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) it has been obtained 9th order of linear AR. The model has been used for predicting solar maximum of current cycle (solar cycle 23). This simple model seems rather accurate to neural network model for several years ahead prediction of solar activity.

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