Modeling Credit Risk with Partial Information

Details Modeling Credit Risk with Partial Information Modeling Credit Risk with Partial Information

2004-07-05

arxiv.org/abs/math/0407060v1

Annals of Applied Probability 2004, Vol. 14, No. 3, 1167-1178

Mathematics

Probability

Scientific paper

10.1214/105051604000000251

This paper provides an alternative approach to Duffie and Lando [Econometrica 69 (2001) 633-664] for obtaining a reduced form credit risk model from a structural model. Duffie and Lando obtain a reduced form model by constructing an economy where the market sees the manager's information set plus noise. The noise makes default a surprise to the market. In contrast, we obtain a reduced form model by constructing an economy where the market sees a reduction of the manager's information set. The reduced information makes default a surprise to the market. We provide an explicit formula for the default intensity based on an Azema martingale, and we use excursion theory of Brownian motions to price risky debt.

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