Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Feb 1993
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1993asd..confq....d&link_type=abstract
AIAA, AHS, and ASEE, Aerospace Design Conference, Irvine, CA, Feb. 16-19, 1993, 15 p.
Mathematics
Probability
Manned Mars Missions, Space Exploration, Mars Surface, Planetary Geology, Project Management
Scientific paper
Over the past several years, a number of candidate scenarios for the human exploration of Mars have been advanced. These have had a range of mission objectives, scope, scale, complexity and probable cost. The Exploration Programs Office (ExPO) has developed a reference Mars exploration program and a means of comparing it to other proposed Mars programs. The reference program was initiated in a workshop of Mars exploration advocates which defined two objectives of equal importance for early Mars exploration - understanding Mars and understanding the potential of Mars to support humans. These goals were used to define a set of transportation and surface elements that could carry out a robust exploration program. The approach to comparing alternate architectures has three principal parts: (1) Bringing the architectures into rough commonality in terms of surface mission objectives and hardware capabilities; (2) Providing a common level of human support for flights to and from Mars; and (3) Comparing the complexity of the elements needed to carry out the program and using partial redundancy to approximate the same statistical probability of mission success. This top-level approach has been applied to the ExPO reference program, the 'Mars Directs strategy (Zubrin, 1991) and the Stanford International Mars Mission (Lusignan, 1992).
Briggs Geoffrey
Duke Michael B.
Keaton Paul W.
Roberts Barney B.
Weaver David
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