Methods for predicting satellite orbital lifetimes

Computer Science – Performance

Scientific paper

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Orbit Calculation, Orbit Decay, Performance Prediction, Satellite Lifetime, Annual Variations, Computer Programs, Correction, Diurnal Variations, Graphs (Charts), Orbit Perturbation, Orbital Elements, Orbital Mechanics, Satellite Drag, Satellite Orbits, Solar Activity Effects

Scientific paper

Simple graphical methods are presented for estimating the future lifetime of an earth satellite from its current rate of decay, using theory adapted to an atmosphere with a realistic variation of density with height. The effects of the departure of the earth and atmosphere from spherical symmetry and the variations of density with time are approximated by specifying correction factors. Orbits which experience serious lunisolar perturbations call for numerical-integration methods, and the uses of the computer programs PROD and PTDEC are described. Despite the many uncertainties, the remaining lifetimes of most satellites should be predictable with an accuracy of + or - 10% by these methods, which are based on many years' experience in making monthly decay predictions.

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