Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astronomy
Scientific paper
Sep 2003
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2003aipc..679..176a&link_type=abstract
SOLAR WIND TEN: Proceedings of the Tenth International Solar Wind Conference. AIP Conference Proceedings, Volume 679, pp. 176-1
Astronomy and Astrophysics
Astronomy
Particle Emission, Solar Wind, Solar Wind Plasma, Sources Of Solar Wind
Scientific paper
Solar activity affects the shape of the corona as well as the size of the heliosphere. Also, it has a bearing on the quality of life issues on earth. So it is important that its level be forecast in a reliable manner, well ahead of time, to allow for proper planning. At Solar Wind Nine, I reported on the discovery of a three-cycle quasi-periodicity in the magnetized solar wind from the polar coronal holes late in the descending phase of a cycle. This led us to develop a procedure for forecasting the amplitude and the rise time of solar cycle 23. We predicted a moderate cycle 23 with a smoothed sunspot number (SSN) at its maximum, in early 2000: 131.5+33/-20. The solar astronomers criticized our prediction as being overly on the low side and unlikely to come true. So far, our forecast is right on the mark. We review the solar and geophysical data as of the end of May 2002 and describe the present state of cycle 23 in relation to those observed over a 400-year period and the lessons learned by us from this exercise.
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