Maximum entropy production, cloud feedback, and climate change

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Atmospheric Processes: Climate Change And Variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513), Atmospheric Processes: Clouds And Cloud Feedbacks, Global Change: Global Climate Models (3337, 4928), Atmospheric Processes: Global Climate Models (1626, 4928)

Scientific paper

A steady-state energy-balance climate model based on a global constraint of maximum entropy production is used to examine cloud feedback and the response of surface temperature T to doubled atmospheric CO2. The constraint ensures that change in zonal cloud amount $\theta$ necessarily involves change in the convergence KX of meridional energy flow. Without other feedbacks, the changes in $\theta$, KX and T range from about 2%, 2 Wm-2 and 1.5 K respectively at the equator to -2%, -2 Wm-2 and 0.5 K at the poles. Global-average cloud effectively remains unchanged with increasing CO2 and has little effect on global-average temperature. Global-average cloud decreases with increasing water vapour and amplifies the positive feedback of water vapour and lapse rate. The net result is less cloud at all latitudes and a rise in T of the order of 3 K at the equator and 1 K at the poles. Ice-albedo and solar absorption feedbacks are not considered.

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