Martian Meteorology from 4-D Variational Assimilation of TES Radiances

Mathematics – Logic

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Scientific paper

How do we maximize the atmospheric science return from MGS and other Martian observations? A complete picture of the planet's meteorology can be obtained via data assimilation which weaves together the abundant observational data and the physical knowledge incorporated in a general circulation model. The result is an optimal analysis of the full atmospheric state---temperature, horizontal and vertical wind, geopotential height, and surface pressure as functions of latitude, longitude, altitude, and time---along with improved values for model parameters and instrument calibration. A logical program to accomplish this has three stages. 1) First, model analysis and forecast errors are estimated from the assimilation of retrieved data. This step has been accomplished for the full MGS mapping mission year using TES temperature profiles. In doing so, we treated the model as a weak constraint, solving for the diabatic forcing rather than predicting it. This is possible because the daily assimilation problem is overdetermined by the plentiful data. The analyzed temperature fields fit the input with a root-mean-square residual of 2 K. 2) Second, we perform a direct assimilation of the observed variables---primarily TES infrared radiances. The inversion of these infrared spectra is an underdetermined problem. The required additional constraints are best provided by our assimilation model physics and forecasts. This analysis is now being conducted for the complete mapping orbit TES dataset (including observations by all detectors). We use the results from the previous assimilation of retrieved data to estimate the model forecast error covariance matrix. Analyzed model radiances agree with the data with a root-mean-square residual of 1 erg/cm2/s/sr/cm-1. 3) The ultimate step in dealing with this data will be the development of a sequential assimilation technique which could eventually provide a viable, real-time Mars weather forecasting system (with an accurate assessment of the forecast errors).

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