Statistics – Computation
Scientific paper
Aug 2002
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002aps..ccp.e1003b&link_type=abstract
American Physical Society, Division of Computational Physics Annual Meeting: , abstract #E1.003
Statistics
Computation
Scientific paper
Earth's mantle overturns itself about once every 200 Million years (myrs). Prima facie evidence for this overturn is the motion of tectonic plates at the surface of the Earth driving the geologic activity of our planet. Supporting evidence also comes from seismic tomograms of the Earth's interior that reveal the convective currents in remarkable clarity. Much has been learned about the physics of solid state mantle convection over the past two decades aided primarily by sophisticated computer simulations. Such simulations are reaching the threshold of fully resolving the convective system globally. In this talk we will review recent progress in mantle dynamics studies. We will then turn our attention to the fundamental question of whether it is possible to explicitly reconstruct mantle flow back in time. This is a classic problem of history matching, amenable to control theory and data assimilation. The technical advances that make such approach feasible are dramatically increasing compute resources, represented for example through Beowulf clusters, and new observational initiatives, represented for example through the US-Array effort that should lead to an order-of-magnitude improvement in our ability to resolve Earth structure seismically below North America. In fact, new observational constraints on deep Earth structure illustrate the growing importance of of improving our data assimilation skills in deep Earth models. We will explore data assimilation through high resolution global adjoint models of mantle circulation and conclude that it is feasible to reconstruct mantle flow back in time for at least the past 100 myrs.
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