Malthusian assumptions lead to Boserupian phenology in a global model of the transitions to agriculture

Biology – Quantitative Biology – Populations and Evolution

Scientific paper

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Chapter manuscript submitted to "Society, Nature and History: The Legacy of Ester Boserup" 11th August 2011

Scientific paper

In the many transitions from foraging to agropastoralism it is debated whether innovation in technology or increase of population is the primary driver. The driver discussion traditionally separates Malthusian (technology driven) from Boserupian (population driven) theories. I present a numerical model of the transition to agriculture and discuss this model in the light of the population versus technology debate and in Boserup's analytical frame- work in development theory. Although my model is based on ecological-Neomalthusian- principles, the coevolutionary positive feedback relationship between technology and population results in apparent Boserupian behaviour: innovation is greatest when population pressure is highest. This outcome is not only visible in the theory-driven reduced model, but is also present in a corresponding "real world" simulator which was tested against archaeological data, and which thus demonstrates the relevance and validity of the coevolutionary model. The lesson to be learned is that not all that acts Boserupian needs Boserup at its core.

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