Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Dec 1985
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1985stin...8714239d&link_type=abstract
Final Report, Apr. 1983 - Dec. 1985 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO. Space Environmental Lab.
Mathematics
Probability
Atmospheric Models, Interplanetary Medium, Magnetohydrodynamics, Solar Flares, Solar Terrestrial Interactions, Solar Wind, Earth Magnetosphere, Geomagnetism, Magnetic Storms, Real Time Operation, System Effectiveness, Thermosphere
Scientific paper
A scientifically constructed series of interplanetary magnetohydrodynamic models is made that comprise the foundations for a composite solar terrestrial environment model. These models, unique in the field of solar wind physics, include both 2-1/2D as well as 3D time dependent codes that will lead to future operational status. We have also developed a geomagnetic storm forecasting strategy, referred to as the Solar Terrestrial Environment Model (STEM/2000), whereby these models would be appended in modular fashion to solar, magnetosphere, ionosphere, thermosphere, and neutral atmosphere models. We stress that these models, while still not appropriate at this date for operational use, outline a strategy or blueprint for the future. This strategy, if implemented in its essential features, offers a high probability for technology transfer from theory to operational testing within, approximately, a decade. It would ensure that real time observations would be used to drive physically based models that outputs of which would be used by space environment forecasters.
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