Long-Term Test Results and Implementation of Radiation Storm Forecasting with SOHO/COSTEP's Relativistic Electrons

Details Long-Term Test Results and Implementation of Radiation Storm Forecasting with SOHO/COSTEP's Relativistic Electrons Long-Term Test Results and Implementation of Radiation Storm Forecasting with SOHO/COSTEP's Relativistic Electrons

Dec 2007

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2007agufmsh41a0302p&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2007, abstract #SH41A-0302

Other

2194 Instruments And Techniques, 7514 Energetic Particles (2114), 7900 Space Weather, 7924 Forecasting (2722), 7984 Space Radiation Environment

Scientific paper

A method of forecasting the intensity of prompt solar energetic protons of hazardous energies (~40 MeV) with relativistic electrons has been developed but, initially, tested only for 2003. It has been shown that forecasting of sudden intensity increases of such protons from solar energetic particle events is relevant for radiation protection of humans and technology in space. The method utilizes the speed advantage of electrons over 30-50 MeV protons and newly discovered correlations of inverse rise time and intensity between the two particle species. Its main advantage over other forecasting attempts is that electrons act as test particles by probing the ever- changing heliospheric transport conditions that act on the slower moving protons. The purpose of this presentation is to inform of forecasting attempts in the period from 2004-2007 under near solar minimum conditions with its unusually high occurrence frequency of major radiation storms, and to give an update on the implementation of the method with the SOHO/COSTEP team and the SOHO project.

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