Long-Term Solar Variability and the Solar Cycle in the 21st Century

Details Long-Term Solar Variability and the Solar Cycle in the 21st Century Long-Term Solar Variability and the Solar Cycle in the 21st Century

Apr 2004

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2004apj...605l..81b&link_type=abstract

The Astrophysical Journal, Volume 605, Issue 1, pp. L81-L84.

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astronomy

21

Sun: Activity

Scientific paper

We have examined the long-term trends in the solar variability that can be deduced from some indirect data and from optical records. We analyzed the radiocarbon measurements for the last 4500 years, based on dendrochronology, the Schove series for the last 1700 years, based on auroral records, and the Hoyt-Schatten series of group sunspot numbers. Focusing on periodicities near one and two centuries, which most likely have a solar origin, we conclude that the present epoch is at the onset of an upcoming local minimum in the long-term solar variability. There are some clues that the next minimum will be less deep than the Maunder minimum, but ultimately the relative depth between these two minima will be indicative of the amplitude change of the quasi-two-century solar cycle.

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