Mathematics – Logic
Scientific paper
Dec 2004
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2004agufm.a13b0123m&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2004, abstract #A13B-0123
Mathematics
Logic
3300 Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics, 3319 General Circulation
Scientific paper
The operational system for long range weather forecasting (LRF) was developed by Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute (UHMI) in the result of studies of general circulation and on the long-range weather forecasting which were began in 1975 by research group leaded by Prof. V. Martazinova. Three key approaches are used in the operational system LRF of UHMI: (1) Floating analog method (FAM); (2) Two-month quasi-periodicity of atmospheric processes in the troposphere of the Northern Hemisphere; (3)Ethalon-field approach. The based on the pattern recognition technique FAM is the continuation of the ideas of former Soviet Union school of long-range forecasting. The traditional method of analog was generalized and advanced as the method of "floating analog" (Martazinova and Sologub, 1986; Martazinova, 1989; 2001). FAM requires only geometrical similarity of the planetary high-level frontal zone and surface pressure on the Northern Hemisphere. The limiting conditions of the coincidence in time and space are lifted. The use of FAM made it possible to reveal the two-month quasi-periodicity of synoptic situation in the Northern Hemisphere. The strong changes of weather within month are predicted using statistical "ethalon field" approach that was developed for classification of meteorological fields in the climate research and the long-range forecasting (Martazinova and Prokhorenko, 1991). The meteorological information for the forecast is used only for the last two months before the target month. The fields of geopotential and pressure are recognized by the "ethalon-field-analog" which corresponds to two-month quasi-periodicity of the ethalon-fields. The forecast for days the strong changes of weather over the territory of Ukraine in next two months. Recognition of daily synoptic situations of last two months by the synoptic situation of two-month quasi-periodicity of atmospheric processes for ethalons when there are waves of cold and heat, strong precipitation, strong winds over the territory of Ukraine. Method of the LRF by using FAM and "ethalon field" approach is suitable for forecasting of the atmospheric circulation in the different regions of the Northern Hemisphere. For recognizing of the important meteorological events for the different regions of the Northern Hemisphere the construction of "ethalon-fields" of the strong changes of weather is necessary. The universality of proposed method was confirmed by operational forecasts for the territory of Bulgaria, Poland, the Netherlands, Germany and Great Britain. At present time LRF by this metod are official in the Ukraine. They are issued by the Department of the Climate Research and Long-Range Weather Forecasting of UHMI from 1992.
Ivanova E. K.
Martazinova V. F.
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