Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Dec 2006
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006dps....38.5808g&link_type=abstract
American Astronomical Society, DPS meeting #38, #58.08; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 38, p.1303
Mathematics
Probability
Scientific paper
An observation set of an asteroid is typically classified as belonging to a certain asteroid group based on a single point estimate of the orbital-element probability density function (p.d.f.), which is usually obtained via either the least-squares solution assuming Gaussian statistics, or a single Väisälä solution based on human judgement. For short observation time intervals leading to wide, clearly non-Gaussian, and strongly nonlinear orbital-element p.d.f.'s, the use of a point estimate for classification is prone to errors. When searching for near-Earth objects (NEOs), an observation set may, for instance, seem a probable, and in this particular case uninteresting, main-belt object (MBO) because the point estimate places it within the main asteroid belt at the observation date. However, in reality the observation set may belong to a near-Earth object (NEO) that only spends part of its time in the main asteroid belt. Currently some 50,000 provisionally designated observation sets in the Minor Planet Center (MPC) observation database span less than two days. Most of these have been observed for at least two nights, as the MPC guidelines require to get a provisional designation. The overwhelming majority of these so-called two-nighters are currently classified as MBOs. For the NEO suspects in the two-nighter data, the linkage to other observation sets may have been unsuccessful with the current methods. This could, for instance, happen for fast-moving objects on high-eccentricity orbits as these objects also spend a substantial fraction of their time in the main asteroid belt around aphelion, that is, masquerading themselves as MBOs. We will (i) present a sampling method which can link observation sets over several apparitions, (ii) apply the method on simulated data to prove its accuracy, and (iii) search for hidden NEO identifications among provisionally designated oneand two-nighters.
Granvik Mikael
Muinonen Karri
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