Jupiter orbiter lifetime - The hazard of Galilean satellite collision

Mathematics – Probability

Scientific paper

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Collision Avoidance, Jupiter Probes, Natural Satellites, Satellite Lifetime, Space Missions, Spacecraft Orbits, Eccentric Orbits, Graphs (Charts), Gravitational Effects, Maximum Likelihood Estimates, Orbital Elements, Planetary Orbits, Prediction Analysis Techniques, Probability Theory, Satellite Perturbation, Statistical Analysis

Scientific paper

An assessment of the long-term collision risk is made for an uncontrolled orbiting spacecraft that repeatedly enters the spatial region occupied by the satellites. Numerical data are obtained for 50-year orbit propagations which account approximately for the major perturbative effects of Jupiter oblateness, solar gravity and satellite gravity. A broad statistical viewpoint regarding the question of collision likelihood is adopted and is based on a total sample size of 480 initial orbits distributed among 4 orbit classes, 8 inclinations and 15 initial epochs. Numerical results compare favorably with an analytical prediction formula which shows that eccentric, low-inclination orbits have high collision probability.

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