Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Jul 1975
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1975aiaa.confr....f&link_type=abstract
American Astronautical Society and American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Astrodynamics Specialist Conference, Nass
Mathematics
Probability
Collision Avoidance, Jupiter Probes, Natural Satellites, Satellite Lifetime, Space Missions, Spacecraft Orbits, Eccentric Orbits, Graphs (Charts), Gravitational Effects, Maximum Likelihood Estimates, Orbital Elements, Planetary Orbits, Prediction Analysis Techniques, Probability Theory, Satellite Perturbation, Statistical Analysis
Scientific paper
An assessment of the long-term collision risk is made for an uncontrolled orbiting spacecraft that repeatedly enters the spatial region occupied by the satellites. Numerical data are obtained for 50-year orbit propagations which account approximately for the major perturbative effects of Jupiter oblateness, solar gravity and satellite gravity. A broad statistical viewpoint regarding the question of collision likelihood is adopted and is based on a total sample size of 480 initial orbits distributed among 4 orbit classes, 8 inclinations and 15 initial epochs. Numerical results compare favorably with an analytical prediction formula which shows that eccentric, low-inclination orbits have high collision probability.
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