Is the sun a long period variable

Details Is the sun a long period variable Is the sun a long period variable

Aug 1990

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1990nascp3086..106s&link_type=abstract

In NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center, Climate Impact of Solar Variability p 106-114 (SEE N91-12456 03-92)

Mathematics

Probability

Climate, Climatology, Dendrochronology, Mira Variables, Probability Theory, Solar Activity Effects, Sun, Amplitude Modulation, Carbon Isotopes, Conifers, Geomagnetism, Inference, Magnetic Variations, Maxima, Minima, Secular Variations

Scientific paper

The inventory of atmospheric radiocarbon exhibits quasi-periodic variations of mean period of bar-lambda=269 years over the entire 9000 year record. But the period is inconstant and subject to random variability (sigma m exp. 1/2 = 119 years). The radiocarbon maxima correspond to the quasiperiodic extension of the Maunder minimum throughout the Holocene and resolve the long-standing issue of Maunder cyclicity. The radiocarbon maxima are amplitude modulated by the approx. 2300 year period and thus vary significantly in peak value. The approx. 2300 year period in turn appears to not be modulated by the secular geomagnetic variation. Detection of a Maunder-like sequence of minima in tree ring growth of Bristlecone pine and its correlation with the Maunder (1890, 1922) cyclicity in the radiocarbon record supports the inference that solar forcing of the radiocarbon record is accompanied by a corresponding forcing of growth of timberline Bristlecone pine. Because of the random component of the Maunder period, prediction of climate, if tied to the Maunder cycle other than probabilistically, is significantly hindered. For the mean Maunder period of 269 years, the probability is 67 percent that a given climatic maximum lies anywhere between 150 and 388 years.

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